THE WOODLANDS, Texas — An early test of Kevin McCarthy's potential speakership is looming outside Houston, where he and some of the GOP’s biggest provocateurs have lined up on opposite sides of a primary that will shape the temperament of the next Republican House majority.
A group of MAGA firebrands, including freshman Reps. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), are catapulting into a GOP primary here to boost Christian Collins, a far-right activist who has vowed to govern in their image.
But they are facing fierce resistance from other powerful GOP figures, including McCarthy, who have aligned behind a different candidate, former Navy SEAL Morgan Luttrell.
This March primary for a deep-red seat pits MAGA forces against the Republican establishment, and the skirmish is part of a larger fight to determine the contours of a possible new GOP majority. McCarthy's involvement suggests that this year, he won’t shy away from intervening in deep-red primaries if the outcome could determine whether he leads a majority that is largely aligned with his goals — or one with a significant faction of rabble-rousers willing to publicly stymie his plans.
"We cannot have people that are going to go to Washington and go along to get along with the Washington establishment," Collins said in an interview with POLITICO at a campaign event on Saturday. "I'm going to side with the Madison Cawthorns. I'm going to side with the Marjorie Taylor Greenes. I'm going to side with the Jim Jordans — the tip of the spear in Washington.”
Another consideration for McCarthy, as he makes a play for the speakership, is who will support him and who could threaten his push to secure the role next January if Republicans retake the House. Depending on the size of a GOP majority, critics and reluctant supporters could have the power to block him from the top spot — or, potentially, extract concessions along the way.
In the Texas seat currently held by retiring GOP Rep. Kevin Brady, the Republican frontrunners are sending different signals over how they would vote. Luttrell indicated in a debate in early February he would back McCarthy if the California Republican is the only one running. Collins said only that he would “take the recommendation of the Freedom Caucus” — which tanked McCarthy’s 2015 speaker bid — while praising Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the first chair of the Freedom Caucus who has become a McCarthy ally.
The race is a study in contrasts: Collins has received aid from the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus. Frontrunning Luttrell, a 6-foot-5-inch war hero-turned-cognitive scientist, has received about $600,000 in TV ad support from the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, which does not often get involved in safe-seat primaries. He also has the GOP leader officially behind him. McCarthy “fully supports Morgan’s candidacy,” a spokesperson told POLITICO.
“He’s got a lifetime of experience and heroism that speaks for itself, and it is very apparent that he would be a serious conservative leader In Congress,” Dan Conston, Congressional Leadership Fund’s president, said of Luttrell. “We want to make sure that the next House Republican majority is effective, is impressive.”
Greene, Cawthorn and a host of MAGA personalities — including DC Draino, a conservative influencer barred from Twitter, and Mike Lindell, the prominent pillow salesperson-turned-election conspiracy theorist — descended on Texas last week to host a marathon rally here for Collins. Their goal: block Luttrell from getting 50 percent of the primary vote and force him into a one-on-one runoff with Collins. There are nine other candidates on the ballot who could cut up the vote and send the primary to overtime.
And while the fight is in Texas now, Cawthorn, Taylor Greene and their allies have made clear this isn’t the only race where they plan to use their influence to elect a feistier type of Republican House member.
“We need a certain level of aggression right now in Congress,” Cawthorn said, adding that his experience showed “the advent of social media” means “you can really sway a lot as a freshman.”
Greene, as she often does, took the theme and turned it up to 11: “I'm all about the civil war in the GOP,” Greene said.
Split over style
This Texas primary is reigniting the long-running, intra-party battle between insurgent candidates — tea partiers in the early 2010s, MAGA-world in the 2020s — and more establishment-oriented Republicans, each trying to grow their influence in Congress. The same competition is set to play out again in a slew of GOP primaries this year, from Illinois to Tennessee to Florida.
“It also provides you with a glimpse of what governing the Republican conference is going to be like in 2023,” said Ken Spain, who worked as a strategist for the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2010, when a wave of tea party insurgents landed in Congress.
Not every MAGA member will oppose McCarthy at every point in his potential speakership, and he has spent years making overtures to former President Donald Trump’s loyal allies in the House. Cawthorn, for instance, has said he has a good relationship with McCarthy and predicted he could sail to the speakership.
But the last GOP House majority showed how even a small number of rebels can cause regular headaches for leadership. Greene said she had not decided if she would support McCarthy but expressed anger he had not done more to back her over her controversial tweets.
In Texas, an outright win by Luttrell could help blunt the MAGA contingent’s momentum, but the proxy war will only intensify if the contest extends into a May primary runoff.
At a three-hour event billed as an “America First Rally,” some speakers lobbed indirect insults at Luttrell, painting him as insufficiently conservative or supportive of Trump, though he served as an adviser in the former president’s energy department.
“You see someone that will definitely go in and hand their voting card right over to Kevin McCarthy,” said Greene, calling Luttrell part of the “RINO establishment,” or Republican in Name Only. “Then you see Christian Collins, and he's definitely not going to do that. He'll be standing there with me.”
There are few serious ideological differences between Luttrell and Collins — but they certainly diverge in style. Collins frequently dredges up claims of election fraud, calls for a national audit of the 2020 election results, suggests Anthony Fauci should be jailed and says that universities turn young adults into "radical, leftist, hating-America atheists.”
In a perfectly orchestrated split-screen, Luttrell hosted a “Texas First” event at the veteran-themed Honor Cafe some 15 miles north, with former Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Wearing blue jeans and a black T-shirt with the word “Veteran” on the front, Luttrell was introduced by his brother, a famous author, talked about his military service and pointedly declined to throw jabs of his own.
"I'm a Reagan guy,” he told the packed restaurant, referencing the former president’s “11th commandment” that Republicans should not attack their own. “I'm not going to tear up anybody on my team. I get off a little bit in private — a lot probably — but you'll never hear me do that.”
The resumes of both candidates speak to the new reality of House races. People with the traditional former military backgrounds or administration experience are now butting up against a newer crop of candidates who have made a name through social media. (Collins founded the Texas Youth Summit, a speaker series which promotes Judeo-Christian principles.)
Collins has questioned Luttrell’s supporters, including Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), an anti-Trump Republican and friend of Luttrell’s, and the the McCarthy-aligned CLF, which he described as driven by “bad forces” trying “to go back to the Republican Party of the John McCains, of the George Bushs, of the Mitt Romneys.”
Collins has taken special issue with one Luttrell backer, Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), a former Navy SEAL who has repeatedly clashed with House Freedom Caucus members.
The ill feeling is mutual. “Look, Christian used to work for us and we had to let him go,” Crenshaw said, adding: “He's proven himself to be a disappointing candidate. He's run a very dirty campaign. And he flip-flops on the issues.”
The stakes for the next Congress
Under the radar of the 2020 presidential race, GOP House primaries two years ago saw the rise of pro-Trump hardliners who traffic in conspiracy theories and grievance politics but also hold immense clout with the base and online. Cawthorn and Greene are among the most prominent, but their ranks also include Reps. Andrew Clyde, Lauren Boebert and Mary Miller, as well as more senior members like Reps. Paul Gosar and Matt Gaetz.
GOP strategists and donors are carefully watching for primary battles featuring like-minded candidates that could determine their governing prospects in 2023.
“There’s a real push in the donor community” to focus on “the difference between a governing majority and a majority,” said one Republican donor adviser, granted anonymity to speak candidly about private conversations. The Texas race, the person said, would be a preview for the primary cycle that will stretch through September.
Cawthorn, who described a group chat with MAGA-aligned Republicans discussing possible candidates to support, has backed more than a dozen other House hopefuls. Their ranks include Bo Hines, a former college football player running in North Carolina; Robby Starbuck, a MAGA personality in Tennessee with a large Twitter following; and Anna Paulina Luna, a veteran endorsed by Trump in Florida.
Greene said she also planned to get involved in a limited number of races where she saw a viable candidate aligned with her style. Among those she’s backing: Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, who has compared mask mandates in America to Nazi Germany, and Illinois’ Miller, who mounted a challenge against fellow GOP Rep. Rodney Davis after parts of their current seats were combined during the state’s redistricting.
Taken all together, wins by even a handful of MAGA diehards could create a faction with powerful sway in the House GOP. Wins by some of the candidates challenging GOP members who voted to impeach Trump last year, like Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), could pad the numbers even more.
“The next speaker is going to have a hard time governing the House,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist who worked for former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. “The incentive structure still rewards those who are going to be aggressively against their own side.”
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By: Ally Mutnick, Olivia Beavers and Elena Schneider
Title: The primary foreshadowing the future of the GOP
Sourced From: www.politico.com/news/2022/02/25/kevin-mccarthy-primary-texas-00011683
Published Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 04:30:00 EST
