Newly released polling in Missouri bolsters an argument Senate Republican leadership has made for months: Former Gov. Eric Greitens could be an unusually weak red-state nominee.
Greitens, who resigned mid-term in 2018, has led the crowded Republican field in early polling for the state’s open Senate seat. But according to a recent survey done for a private third-party and obtained by POLITICO, Greitens would have just a slim lead over Democrat Lucas Kunce if the general election were held today.
The poll, which was conducted in January, found that in a head-to-head contest, Greitens would win just 42.2 percent to 38.3 percent for Kunce, with 19.5 percent undecided.
Greitens’ 4-point lead in the hypothetical matchup, just outside the poll’s margin of error, is a sign that the former governor’s baggage could turn off conservative and independent voters in a state that former President Donald Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2020.
Top Republicans have cautioned that if Greitens emerges as the Senate nominee, it could cost the party an otherwise safe Senate seat.
The former governor was investigated in 2018 by Sen. Josh Hawley, then the state attorney general, over Greitens’ use of a charity’s donor list to solicit campaign funds, before Hawley turned the findings over to a St. Louis prosecutor. Greitens was subsequently charged with computer tampering, though the charge was dropped as part of a deal with prosecutors to resign from office.
Earlier that year, Greitens had also been indicted on a charge of invasion of privacy after facing allegations that he took an unauthorized nude photo of his hairstylist while sexually assaulting her in his basement in 2015. Greitens admitted to engaging in an extramarital affair with the woman, but insisted the encounters were consensual. The charge was dropped for lack of evidence, though Missouri legislators convened a special committee and found the woman making the allegations to be credible, according to their report.
After declining for months to become publicly involved in the race, Hawley endorsed Rep. Vicky Hartzler on Saturday, saying she is the one he believes can win the primary and general election.
His choice generated hard feelings among other contenders for the Senate nomination — in addition to raising eyebrows in Trump World. Of all the candidates in the field, Hartzler has done the least public pandering to win the former president’s support.
“I thought it might be good for me to be involved in this race. The field seemed to be fracturing and splintering,” Hawley said in an interview Tuesday. “We’ve seen this happen in Missouri races. I just think it’s so important we hold this seat.”
Keeping quiet about his choice in the primary “didn’t seem viable,” Hawley said Tuesday.
“I get asked constantly when I’m at home and talking with Republicans about who I’m going to support, who I’m going to vote for,” he said. “If I’m going to put my dime down, if I’ve made up my mind, I might as well tell people.”
Until December, Hawley remained undecided if he would make an endorsement at all, he said. When he decided it was necessary to weigh in, it became a “tough, tough, tough, tough decision” on who to back. Hawley said he didn’t make a final decision on Hartzler until a couple weeks ago, and decided on Friday that he would announce the endorsement the next day at the state GOP’s Lincoln Days event in St. Charles.
The endorsement came right before a scheduled Senate candidate forum, which reporters would already be attending. And it would still leave 10 days until candidate filing began, should anyone change their mind about running.
After the Saturday announcement, Hawley said he called Trump, whom he has regularly talked to about the Missouri Senate primary — sometimes as often as weekly.
Trump so far has declined to endorse in the race.
Hawley’s team last month released polling that showed his endorsement would have“a significant impact” on the primary. The poll, conducted by OnMessage, found 54 percent of GOP voters said his endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a particular candidate, versus 34 percent who said it would make no difference.
Despite speculation by some that Hawley’s endorsement was orchestrated by OnMessage — the firm that serves as campaign consultants for both Hawley and Hartzler — andpublic statements to that effect made by Rep. Billy Long, another Republican in the race, Hawley flatly denied the consultants played any role.
“I don’t endorse based on consultants and so forth,” he said.
Long, who has been stuck in single digits in the polls, according to publicly available surveys, has been the most explicit of any candidate in his attempts to earn Trump’s endorsement.
Asked Tuesday whether Trump or other high-level Republicans had asked him to exit the Senate race and run for reelection to the House, the congressman emphasized that he wouldn’t be tempted by any such arrangement.
“They know that will NEVER HAPPEN,” Long said in a text message.
Unlike other crowded Republican races where Senate candidates and their super PACs have already spent tens of millions of dollars on ads, the airwaves in Missouri are quiet. Instead, the campaigns have been battling it out at grassroots events and on their own social media platforms, with no one emerging yet as a clear front-runner.
A new super PAC on Tuesday announced its support for Hartzler, another momentum boost for her campaign.
Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.
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By: Natalie Allison
Title: Missouri Senate poll alarms GOP
Sourced From: www.politico.com/news/2022/02/16/missouri-senate-poll-alarms-gop-00009317
Published Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2022 04:31:00 EST
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