May 10: Believing The Polls

Friday. Looks Like We Made It. Happy Mother’s Day.

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Happy Birthday. Cake and candles for Rep. Mike Kelly and former Sen. Rick Santorum. Early returns for Rep. Jordan Harris (Sun.)

Daily Bruce. “Oh but love is fleeting, it’s sad but true. But when your heart is beating, You don’t wanna hear the news.” – From Small Things (Big Things One Day Come)

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Top Story

1. Measuring The Trump Vote: A Years-Long Headache For US Pollsters

“Can we believe the polls? Six months before the US presidential election, pollsters are scrambling to get an accurate read on the people voting for Donald Trump, a group that has systematically eluded them for eight years and counting.

The Republican’s victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 took the United States and the world by surprise. But it was above all the 2020 election, won by Joe Biden, that forced a reckoning for pollsters.

That vote produced polling errors of “unusual magnitude” — the highest in 40 years for the popular vote, and 20 years for state-level estimates, according to a report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research” (CNHI News)

• Voices of Reason, S1E3: The Science of Polling. (PoliticsPA)

Related

RFK Jr. Challenges Trump to Debate; ter Maat Calls On Kennedy As Well. “Could we see former President Donald Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mike ter Maat on the debate stage at the end of the month? Highly unlikely, but the gauntlet has been thrown down at the feet of two of those three.” (PoliticsPA)

The Pennsylvania Chase Is On: An Interview With Cliff Maloney. “The race is on. That would be the race to carry Pennsylvania for former President Donald Trump, win a key Senate race, and win the rest of the down ballot races. And the Citizens Alliance in Pennsylvania (CAP) is on the case.” (The American Spectator)

The 7 Biggest Lawmaker Feuds On Capitol Hill. “Feuds on Capitol Hill are nothing new, but the current Congress has featured some doozies. The animosity between first-term Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and veteran Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who is facing a slew of felony charges, has blown up into one of the biggest beefs in the Senate.” (The Hill)

Fetterman Brings Meme-Driven Style To Fox News, Criticizing Protesters And Biden’s Handling Of War. “U.S. Sen. John Fetterman’s greatest political gift may be his ability to get journalists to pay attention to him. Whether that helps his party this year remains to be seen.” (WESA Politics)

State

2. Pennsylvania To Ban Cell Phone Use While Driving And Require Police To Collect Traffic Stop Data

“Pennsylvania will join the majority of states that ban motorists from handling a cell phone for almost any purpose while driving, as backers of the legislation hope to reduce distracted driving accidents and deaths after nearly two decades of pressing the measure.

Gov. Josh Shapiro’s office said Thursday that the Democrat will sign the bill, 18 years after he first introduced a similar bill when he served in the state House of Representatives. The ban will take effect a year after he signs it, which is expected in the coming days.

The bill also includes a provision long-sought by the Pennsylvania Legislative Black Caucus as a bulwark against racial profiling.” (AP)

Related

Sen. Bob Casey Goes After Dave McCormick On Connecticut Residency. “Casey’s name is synonymous with Pennsylvania, especially Scranton. But it didn’t take Casey long to label McCormick a Connecticut Yankee for living outside the state for many years.” (CBS Pittsburgh)

• Casey Faces Strongest GOP Competitor Yet in McCormick. (CBS Pittsburgh)
• Ad Watch (Casey): Casey Says “Take That, China.” (PoliticsPA)
• Ad Watch (McCormick): Casey Is Too Dangerous For PA. (PoliticsPA)

Biden Campaign Targets Pennsylvania Latinos With Ad. “The ad, which comes as Republicans hammer President Joe Biden on immigration amid record illegal border crossings, highlights Mr. Trump touting the 2018 policy as a deterrence.” (Post-Gazette Washington Notebook)

Dem Proposal To Address ‘Incapacitated’ Members Of PA House Draws GOP Ire. “Floor leaders in the Pennsylvania House clashed this week over the proposed creation of a new subcommittee that would act outside the public eye on requested inquiries into whether a member is fit to serve the lower chamber.” (CNHI News)

Boyle Makes First Public Comments After Warrant, Election Loss. “The whereabouts of Pennsylvania State Representative Kevin Boyle are still unknown but he is making his first on-the-record statements after being accused of violating a protection from abuse order a week before Election Day. Except, there was no PFA order.” (abc27.com)

Around The Commonwealth

3. Nearly Every County In PA Is Short On Public Defenders, According To Report

“Pennsylvania has an insufficient number of public defenders in nearly every county, according to a new report from a University of Pennsylvania law professor, hampering the state’s ability to fulfill its constitutional obligation to provide adequate representation for criminal defendants who can’t afford a lawyer.

Paul Heaton, the report’s author, analyzed nearly one million criminal court dockets covering a six-year period and concluded that there should be about 1,200 public defenders employed in county courthouses across the state. But there are only about 850 public defenders currently working, Heaton found — a shortfall of about 30%.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)

Related

Another Day, Another Court Hearing, And Still No Final Outcome In Luzerne County State House Race. “State Rep. Mike Cabell’s cousin testified Wednesday he lived in Schuylkill County the day he voted in a Luzerne County House race because he thought he was still registered at his former address and could vote that way legally.” (WVIA)

Court Challenges Force Luzerne County Election Certification Delay. “The pending challenges are in the race for the Republican nomination for state representative in the 117th Legislative District. Three votes currently separate candidates Jamie Walsh and incumbent Michael Cabell, with Walsh in the lead.” (Times Leader)

Republican Dino Disler Uses Write-In Votes To Win The Nomination For State 121st House District Seat. “Disler will face Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski, 78, the Wilkes-Barre Democrat who has held the seat since he was first elected in 2006.” (WVIA)

Pittsburgh Mayor’s Office Triples Budgeted Staff. “The Office of the Mayor, which has six different divisions, had 11 full-time jobs budgeted in 2022, which increased to 45 in 2023, according to the city’s 2023 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, released earlier this month.” (The Center Square)

Erie Workers Earn Less Than Their Pennsylvania Counterparts. “Erie’s wages fall substantially short of the $29.77 average for the state. The average wage in Pittsburgh is $29.60, while the average hourly rate in Philadelphia was $32.97.” (Erie Times-News)

Editorial

4. What’s On Your Mind

• Are We A Democracy Or A Republic? (Lori Falce)
• PA Democrats Want to Make Our Elections More Questionable. (Rep. Bryan Cutler)
• State Senate Should Support Pre-Canvassing Bill. (Scranton Times-Tribune)
• Criminalizing Xylazine Won’t Help Anyone. (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
• They Vote Republican And Stay Poor. (LZ Granderson)
• Pennsylvania Needs More Teachers Of Color. (Jeffrey Lee)
• Could Local Sales Taxes be Coming to Pennsylvania Counties? (Allegheny Institute)
• The Joy Of Family And The Importance Of Maternal Health. (Rep. Rob Mercuri)

1 Thing

5. PA Court Rules Perrier is a Soft Drink

“Since 1863, Perrier has marketed itself as selling “natural sparkling table water” from its main source in Vergez, France. It touts its origins at the spa resort of Les Bouillens, creating the impression that Perrier water comes straight out of the ground.

That’s certainly what Jennifer Montgomery thought when she bought a bottle of Perrier at a Sheetz convenience store in Pennsylvania. To her surprise, she was charged 24 cents in state sales tax.

In 2019, Montgomery sought a refund from the state Department of Revenue and simultaneously sued Sheetz, arguing that it had incorrectly charged her tax on natural bottled water, which is tax-free under Pennsylvania state law. Now, Montgomery has lost her case, at least according to an appellate court.” (Food and Wine)

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